2011 Brisbane Cup hope He Knows Uno better than a $12 chance

 The Victorian TABsportbet have been offering big odds on the Queensland runners in tonight’s Group 1 $75,000 first prize 2011 Brisbane Cup (520m) at Albion Park all week.

In the words of trainer Mick Patterson “Yeah, that is what they think of us.”

Patterson has last year’s Brisbane Cup winner He Knows Uno in the final and the betting firm had offered as much as $14 for a repeat.

He is into $12 but ask Patterson what price he thinks is correct.

“I think he is about a $6 chance,” he said.

What you know about the Queensland dog is that he is likely to be last on the fence at the post the first time.

He has a powerful finish and good track sense to negotiate the 2011 Brisbane Cup field.

Patterson concedes that race favourite Dyna Tron and third Spring Gun will take beating.

“If one of them gets away in front they will be very hard to beat as they can run time,” he said.

Dyna Tron is expected to lead the 2011 Brisbane Cup from box one after running the fastest first section in the heats last week.

But is widely thought if he happened not to lead, he is very beatable in the 2011 Brisbane Cup.

Spring Gun was about a length slower to the first section but clearly ran the quickest middle section in the heats.

Spring Gun was weakening badly in the final 80m and despite running the quickest overall heat, it must be a concern.

Many expect these two, from adjoining boxes, may stage a two dog war down the back straight.

Any loss of momentum or interference could play in the hands of the their 2011 Brisbane Cup opposition.

 Spring Gun could cause us a bit of problem but there is nothing we can do, he (Dyna Tron) has drawn one and hopefully he can push through and lead clearly,” said Tom Dailly, wife of trainer Andrea.

The Dailly’s also have Bekim Bale jumping from box five in the final.

Earlier in the week TABsportsbet had the Sandown Park track holder equal favourite but they have since drifted him out.

Both Dyna Tron and Bekim Bale had their first look at Albion Park last week and did things wrong.

Dyna Tron ran hopelessly wide at the first turn but was still good enough.

The railer is expected to be back on his game this week after the initial look.

Bekim Bale did the same thing.

But it isn’t a one off for him.

He ran wide in the recent Melbourne Cup and caused trouble at the first turn.

It cost him in the Melbourne Cup, yet he was good enough to win last week’s 2011 Brisbane Cup heat,  albeit in the slowest time 30.20 sec.

Dailly concedes that Bekim Bale is a wide runner.

He is an enormous talent but his whole race will be determined at that first turn.

If he gets around it trouble free, watch out!

Bekim Bale likes to race wide anyway and is probably not too badly boxed in five,” Dailly said.

I would have preferred Radley Bale drawn on his inside.

 “Bekim Bale is a very strong dog and with a clear run can win it.”

That doubt of running wide however, even that with Dyna Tron could shake up the field.

It could give those at the back with a strong finish their chance.

Another Queenslander, Glen Gallon is perfectly drawn in box three.

He is slowish early and likes to rail.

With the two quickest beginners on his inside he will be where he wants quickly.

TABsportsbet are giving $11 about this Tony Brett-trained dog.

He has a strong finish, perhaps not as strong at Bekim Bale and He Knows Uno but he is likely to be better positioned than that duo going out of the straight the first time.

Mercy Rule has no chance, are we able to  say that?

Okay, her chances are very remote.

Don’t get us wrong, she is a little ripper, earning prizemoney each week and she well deserves her place.

But box eight is a bad one for her.

She hasn’t the pace to lead or the strength to overrun her opponents.

Radical Dos is in a similar situation though it must be said its last month has been great.

A definite improvement in consistency and strength.

The class factor is a major concern, but if he snuck a place at big odds it wouldn’t be a total surprise.

That leaves us with the Graeme Bate-trained Radley Bale from box six.

You know that the Golden Easter Egg winner will be trained to the minute by the master.

He can take advantage of two slow beginners on his immediate inside and outside.

Bate says Dyna Tron is the one to beat but he is hoping for that spoiling duel up front.

“I’m counting on those two in the one and two box mucking each other up,” he said

 Perhaps the last word should go to Patterson.

“It is a better field than last year but He Knows Uno is a better dog as well,” he said

The 2011 Brisbane Cup reserves Iso Octane and Bogie King wont run in the Cup.

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