2011 Brisbane Cup heats summary

BRISBANE CUP HEATS SUMMARY

Heat 1.

The question here is will Iso Octane be able to produce his best. The Tony Brett trained dog has won nine of ten starts at Albion Park but dropped a pin muscle back in July.  He has had two runs since both Ipswich. They were creditable but not the old Iso. Back to Albion Park and obviously fitter can he do what he did at the start of the year –ping and give nothing else a chance.  This is a good heat.  Victorian Radley Bale is undoubtedly a good dog – a winner of $435,000. He can be hit or miss at the start. Three starts here he has missed the start and struggled. His best is seen from inside or outside boxes not those in the middle and he is some risk. One can’t rule him out due to his class but a bookmaker would have justification to take him on. Matilda’s Charm had no luck in the Ipswich Cup. She received an early check and was run off the track at the first turn. She is better than that. She can jump quickly and has won six of 12 at Albion Park. She could take advantage of any weakness in Iso Octane. Coal King can run time but hasn’t raced in this class before, box six won’t help. Bogie Beltah would have preferred a rails draw. Allen Lawson on his night can run a good time. It is his first start at Albion Park but the pink box will suit, giving him room and time to produce his best. Wave To Elle is a hit and miss type of bitch. She can run time but doesn’t like too much pressure around her. Not hopeless but risky. Uno’s Amigo is honest but slow early. One would think he has too much to do.

Tips: Matilda’s Charm- Iso Octane – Allen Lawson—Radley Bale

Heat 2:

Sees the appearance of Bekim Bale. The Sandown Park record holder steps on to Albion Park for the first time, no trial, no race but he is still expected to win. The connections of Fashion Police and Martini Duk have scratched with Champagne Shell and Marshall Star getting their chance. It is a very remote chance in this field. Bekim Bale’s start is his weakness but he has a race where there isn’t a lot of early dash and it is far from impossible that he can lead. A wet track may stop him from running a track record. Can he be beaten?  Cold Fusion is a serious dog. He stepped onto Ipswich for the first time a fortnight ago and won the heat and final of the Cup great time. He loves it at Albion Park as well. He is undoubtedly best from inside boxes but has drawn eight. He does one of two things. One he will push forward and if he does and dodges trouble he can win for sure. But sometimes he waits to get behind dogs when drawn wide before taking off. He wouldn’t  want to give Bekim Bale a start. A third chance is Numero Uno Bale who made last week’s Melbourne Cup final and finished marginally behind BekimBale (4th) when fifth. It can be successfully argued that Bekim Bale should have beaten him by a bigger margin after having no luck but Numero Uno Bale again has the luck by drawing box one. Another strong finisher who should be suited by Albion Park. Migaloo Magic, Is It True and Mercy Rule look beatable.

Tips: Bekim Bale- Cold Fusion – Numero Uno Bale – Mercy Rule

Heat 3:

The Christine Oldfield trained Spring Gun is lightning quick early and expected to make light work of box four. Importantly he has trialled at the track and ran 29.92 on Sunday. That time would win any Albion Park race.  He may be the one to beat but is not over the line. Metz Magic is a quirky type of dog but box three is actually a very good box for him.  It won’t have him caught wide and in trouble because of his lack of early dash or cluttered on the fence for the same reason.  He won the National Sprint at Albion Park and is sure to be at his top for this. Gable Drum  hasn’t trialled at the track but has box one and is quick early. It breaks 30 secs at Wentworth Park at will and in well worth including. Radical Dos hasn’t raced better but if that is good enough for this still remains to be seen. I suspect not but he is certainly not hopeless. Tonneli Bale likes Albion Park which is half the battle for visitors. The Victorian wouldhave been better served from an inside draw as she isn’t the quickest early but well worth an eachway ticket. Withcott Warrior gets a run with Maybe Elite scratched. Time Will Tell is very good on his night but needs it all to go his own way. He isn’t quick early which won’t help. Vocal Enforcer seems to have a tough job here. He won a trial here in 30.30 on Friday. Connections believe he can run quicker but you like to see it first.

Tips: Spring Gun – Metz Magic – Gable Drum – Tonneli Bale

Heat 4:

Two quick beginners have drawn boxes one and eight and both could get away with it. In one Sobbing Destiny, who has won nine of 16 starts at the track, is the likely leader. Her form lately has been a tad off her best. She is an eachway chance. Shereen Bale (box 8) ran second in the Melbourne Cup last week after winning her heat from box eight a fortnight ago. The Graeme Bate trained bitch hasn’t seen Albion Park but rarely runs a bad race. Last year’s Brisbane Cup winner He Knows Uno loves this track having won 10 of 14 starts. He ran a sizzling 29.70 in October and his run in last week’s Ipswich Cup was probably the best run in the race when second. He is slow early but has winning ways and can win this. There are class issues around Soho Max, Ifs And Butts and Late Show Lee though on their night are quite good. Isadel (box 5) has slow early dogs immediately around her and the ability to be up close early. Seeing her progress to the final wouldn’t surprise anyone. Glen Gallon is slow early but strong and talented. He has run 29.79sec and will be primed for this. Tough heat but a good one.

Tips: He Knows Uno – Shereen Bale – Isadel – Glen Gallon.

Heat 5

Dyna Tron won last week’s Melbourne Cup and if he hasn’t put all his eggs in the one basket must be given a top hope.  There are some concerns as he is yet to race outside Victoria, has box four and hasn’t trialled at Albion Park. Citi Hawk (box 8) never  runs a bad race. He is quick and sensible and any faults in Dyna Tron can be exploited. Allen Hertz led the National Sprint final here when third to Metz Magic a few months back. He ran the equivalent to 30.20  sec  which could win this heat. Nicely boxed in two it has a hope. Bogie King is the other class runner in the race. From box five he can follow Dyna Tron over and a good effort is quite possible. Here’s To You, Royal Oscar and Best Behave all have class issues against them. Macie Bell is an interesting one. This series has probably come to quick for the bitch who is just 25 months, but she shows promise and has drawn box one. This is her test. I wouldn’t be surprised by a good run but win? probably not – look for her in future.

Tips: Citi Hawk-Dyna Tron-Allen Hertz-Bogie King.

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