2011 Ipswich Cup – Waltzing Matilda or another?

 Five greyhounds in tonight’s Group 3 $37,500 Ipswich Gold Cup final (520m-8.49pm Queensland time) broke 5.40 sec for the first section in their heats last week – the one who gets to the lead tonight will take beating.

Sobbing Destiny (5.39), Alota The Best (5.31) Cold Fusion (5.38), Matilda’s Charm (5.33) and Magic Control (5.36) have all got the speed to lead.

What was most surprising in the heats was the early dash of Cold Fusion who jumped well from box one.

The Neil Falls-trained galloper usually isn’t that brilliant early – in some cases he looks to sneak in behind the pack and get a cushy rails run until the back straight.

Drawn in box four tonight, he is likely to adopt those tactics with Sobbing Destiny (box 1) and Alota The Best (box 2) likely to lead him.

Cold Fusion was brilliant last week running 30.25 at his first look at the track.

It was the quickest time of the night – it showed what he could do with a clear run.

That is the question – will Cold Fusion get that clear run?.

If he sneaks behind and gets the rail he could very well get it.

The concern is He Knows Uno (box 3) who adopts pretty much the same tactic.

Both these strong finishers need that ounce of luck getting through and not getting in each others way.

Ipswich is a very good leader’s track.

Watch most races and the distance between first and last can be huge as dogs find the first turn from the 520m boxes sharp.

The contours of the track give those who get too far back little to no chance.

Many expect the advantage Sobbing Destiny has in box one will hold her in good stead.

On pure first sectional times Alota The Best would lead.

But he is the one dog who probably doesn’t run the 515m as solidly as rivals and if he happens to take it up the chances of those behind will improve.

Sobbing Destiny was slightly off the boil before its heat win which in truth wasn’t in great time 30.66. Box one and trouble behind has many thinking she could sneak away with it.

Matilda’s Charm (box 5) nearly has it all, a quick start, very strong finale and the ability to run straight and stay out of early trouble.

Her start is everything tonight – She has Duffy (box 6) to her outside.

Duffy, being a 33kg dog opposed to Matilda’s Charm 27kg, could pose a problem.

It runs inwards at the start but isn’t as quick early.

Matilda’s Charm needs to be quick enough to clear him and if she does she has an outstanding chance at good odds.

Her heat win from box 1 in 30.34 was brilliant and she has a liking for Ipswich.

Her trainer Bob Giltinan sees it like this.

“She is flying, she is going good,” he said.

“There isn’t a lot of speed around her but it is a red hot race, she will need to do everything right to give herself a chance.

“She loves Ippy, boxes don’t worry her but obviously it would have been lovely to have had the red.”
“Hopefully she can jump well in front of Duffy (box 6), I don’t think he shows that much
early speed.

“I am worry about Cold Fusion, he (Falls) didn’t even trial him there before the race last week and look what he did.

“Both Cold Fusion and He Knows Uno will be tough to beat if they get luck.”

Trainer Tom Noble has Magic Control in the best form of its career.

It has won its past three races including last week’s heat in 30.40.

Noble and Giltinan give Sobbing Destiny a chance but Noble differs on Cold Fusion and He Knows Uno.

“In finals you always want to be drawn near the fence,” he said.

“I think Sobbing Destiny will lead but there is five in the race that can run a 5.40 first section.

“Cold Fusion is not drawn well and he’s not normally a good beginner and I thought He Knows Uno should have won much easier (last week).

“If Cold Fusion had drawn the rails, nothing would have beaten him.

“He could find trouble from his box draw in four.”

Noble believes Magic Control can race well with luck.

“The eight is his right box but I can see him getting caught out wide at the first turn.” he said.

“There is plenty of speed drawn inside him and that could be his undoing.

“But if he happened to get around that first turn safely, he will be right in it.”

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